1. What is the MLB Win Probability Formula?

The MLB Win Probability formula estimates a team's chance of winning based on runs scored and runs allowed, using an exponent to account for the run scoring environment. This is known as the Pythagorean expectation formula.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the win probability formula:

Where:

• \( Runs \) — Runs scored by the team
• \( Allowed \) — Runs allowed by the team
• \( exp \) — Exponent (typically 1.83 for MLB)

Explanation: The formula accounts for the relationship between runs scored, runs allowed, and winning percentage. The exponent adjusts for the run scoring environment.

3. Importance of Win Probability

Details: Win probability helps evaluate team performance, predict future success, and assess whether a team's record matches their underlying performance.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter runs scored, runs allowed, and the exponent (default is 1.83 for MLB). All values must be positive numbers.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's the typical exponent for MLB?
A: The most commonly used exponent is 1.83, though it can vary slightly by era and run environment.

Q2: How accurate is this formula?
A: It typically predicts actual winning percentage within about 3-4 games over a 162-game season.

Q3: Can this be used for other sports?
A: Yes, but with different exponents (e.g., 2.37 for NBA, 2.00 for NFL).

Q4: Why does the exponent matter?
A: Higher exponents are used in higher scoring environments, lower exponents in lower scoring environments.

Q5: What does it mean if actual wins differ from predicted?
A: Significant differences may indicate luck, clutch performance, or bullpen strength/weakness.