1. What is the Pythagorean Expectation?

The Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula originally developed for baseball by Bill James, but later adapted for basketball. It estimates how many games a team should have won based on points scored and points allowed.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the NBA Pythagorean expectation formula:

Where:

• Points For — Total points scored by the team
• Points Against — Total points allowed by the team
• Games — Total number of games played

Explanation: The formula creates a ratio of a team's offensive strength to its total strength (offense + defense), then applies this ratio to the number of games played.

3. Importance of Pythagorean Wins

Details: Comparing actual wins to Pythagorean expected wins helps analysts evaluate team performance. A team with more actual wins than expected may be "lucky," while one with fewer may be "unlucky."

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter total points scored, total points allowed, and number of games played. All values must be positive numbers.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Why use exponent 2 in basketball when baseball uses 1.83?
A: The exponent varies by sport. Basketball typically uses 2 (or sometimes higher) because scoring is higher variance than baseball.

Q2: What's a good Pythagorean win difference?
A: Differences of ±3 wins may indicate meaningful over/underperformance. Larger differences suggest significant luck factors.

Q3: Can this predict future performance?
A: Yes, teams that significantly outperform their Pythagorean expectation often regress toward it in future seasons.

Q4: Are there more advanced versions of this formula?
A: Yes, some analysts use exponents between 13-17 or adjust for pace of play.

Q5: How accurate is this for single-game predictions?
A: Not very - it's designed for full-season analysis, not individual games.