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Expected Reach Formula:
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The Expected Reach formula estimates how many unique people from your target audience will be exposed to your message given a certain number of impressions and exposure probability. It's based on probabilistic modeling of media exposure.
The calculator uses the probabilistic reach formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula accounts for the probability that multiple impressions may reach the same people, providing a more accurate estimate than simple multiplication.
Details: Calculating expected reach helps media planners optimize campaigns by balancing frequency against unique audience coverage. It's essential for budget allocation and measuring campaign efficiency.
Tips: Enter the total audience size, the probability a single impression reaches an individual (typically 0.01-0.05 for digital ads), and the total planned impressions. All values must be positive numbers.
Q1: What's a good exposure probability value?
A: For digital display ads, typical values range from 0.01 to 0.05. For TV, it might be higher (0.1-0.3). Measure your specific channels for accuracy.
Q2: How does this differ from simple reach?
A: Simple reach would multiply impressions by probability. This formula accounts for overlap - that the same people might see multiple impressions.
Q3: When is this model most accurate?
A: Works best for large audiences and when impressions are randomly distributed. Less accurate for very targeted campaigns.
Q4: What about frequency distribution?
A: This calculates total reach. For frequency distribution (how many people saw 1, 2, 3+ impressions), more complex models are needed.
Q5: Can I use this for social media?
A: Yes, but social platforms often have their own reach metrics that may account for additional factors like user behavior.